Perspective from Japan

Taiwan: No Longer a Buffer between Japan and China?

 

Cultural News, August 2008

 

By Motoaki Kamiura, Military Analyst

Translated by Alan Gleason

 

      During Taiwan’s 1996 presidential election, mainland China fired missiles into the sea off Taiwan as a warning to the islanders not to veer too far in the direction of independence. This year, by contrast, the advent of a Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) administration under newly elected president Ma Ying-jeou has seen links between Taiwan and the mainland suddenly grow tighter.

 

      This past July, mainland-Taiwan air routes were opened to accommodate up to 36 direct commercial flights every weekend, Friday through Monday. Previously, direct flights had been permitted only during special periods like the Chinese New Year; now, for the first time, such flights are part of the regular schedule.

 

     In the past, air travelers across the Taiwan Strait had to transfer in Hong Kong or Macau. The new arrangement dramatically reduces the time and cost of travel for the one million Taiwanese currently doing business on the mainland.

 

    Another past constraint was that Taiwan restricted travel from the mainland to visitors coming for business or academic purposes. Now, Taiwan will accept tourists as well, as long as they are in groups. The availability of direct flights is expected to help boost the number of mainland travelers to Taiwan from a previous 300 thousand per year to as many as one million this coming year.

 

     Recognizing an unprecedented business opportunity, the Taiwanese tour industry is scrambling to welcome the projected influx of mainland tourists. Banks are also prepared to accommodate them; Taiwan has ended its ban on the exchange of mainland Chinese currency and now permits the conversion of up to 20,000 Chinese yuan (about US$2,900) to Taiwanese dollars.

 

      The aim of the Ma administration is to foster greater interdependence between Taiwan and the mainland and thereby improve the Taiwanese economy. Whether this policy works or not remains to be seen, but there is no question that historic changes are afoot in Sino-Taiwanese relations.

 

      Watching at one remove with some consternation is Japan, where politicians and businessmen alike fear that if tensions between Taiwan and the mainland really become a thing of the past, Japan will lose a precious buffer between itself and the mainland. Should Taiwan cease to serve as a buffer, it could usher in a new era of direct confrontation between Japan and China.

 

Motoaki Kamiura is a Tokyo-based military analyst. When the world is in crisis, he appears frequently on national television programs.

  

   Alan Gleason is an editor, writer, and Japanese-English translator. He lives in Tokyo.